Intermarket Analysis

Cross-asset correlation studies — how oil, yields, equities, and FX interact and what divergences signal

Intermarket Analysis

EURJPY - US Strikes Iran, VIX Jumps 14%, Head and Shoulders Retests the Right Shoulder Right as Geopolitical Risk Escalates

EURJPY - SUMMARY 08/07/2026 Regime: US struck 80+ targets in Iran, reimposed oil sanctions, Iran retaliated against Kuwait and Bahrain. VIX spiked 14.25%, oil rose over 3.7%. High Bear, unchanged from last week, potentially reinforced by risk-off. Bias: High Bear. New factors: recalculated DE-JP spread narrowed to just +0.18%, nearly collapsed. Escalating US-Iran geopolitical risk, ceasefire highly fragile. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.87% (not 1.47%); BoJ already hiked to 1.00% hawkish (not "gradual hike path"); ECB neutral hold 2.00% (not cutting cycle). D1 structure: confirmed head and shoulders, left shoulder 186.5-187, head 187.936-188.012, right shoulder 186.048-187.936, neckline 181.018-181.985. Price at 185.279 testing the right shoulder. Target: 177 then 171.047. Invalidation above 186.547. Scenarios: neckline break toward 177-171 if escalation continues (45%); range 181-186.5 pending developments (35%); bounce, break above 186.547 invalidating the pattern (20%). Close monitoring needed over the next 24-48 hours to confirm price reaction to geopolitical developments. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Jul 8, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

GBPUSD - Best Bounce in 12 Weeks Stalls Right at 1.339-1.346 Resistance, Medium-Term Wave (c) Decline Remains Intact

GBPUSD - SUMMARY 07/07/2026 Regime: Best 12-week bounce stalls right at 1.339-1.346 resistance, Medium Bear medium-term (trimmed from Medium-High Bear last week). Weaker dollar and reportedly easing UK political risk (details unconfirmed) pushed price to a three-week high, but the seven-session rally was halted right at resistance. Bias: Medium Bear medium-term. New factors: corrected UK-US 10Y spread at +0.31% favoring the pound (pipeline showed only 0.021%). BoE's Mann hawkish, watching 2027 wage negotiations. DXY fell from 101.112 to 100.911. Data corrections: UK10Y 4.81% (not 4.50%); UK-US spread +0.31% (not 0.021%); US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%). D1 structure: wave (c) declining from the (b) peak at 1.380, tested 1.315 then bounced harder than expected, now testing 1.339-1.346 resistance. Break above opens 1.360-1.365. Break below 1.310 risks the (a) low zone at 1.300-1.308. Scenarios: break above resistance to 1.360-1.365 (30%); range pending confirmation (40%); rejected, turning to 1.310-1.315 (20%); break below 1.310 continuing lower (10%). Not fully certain about the specific details behind the easing UK political risk; monitor further. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Jul 7, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

DXY - Price Holds Above 100.98 Despite a Sharp June NFP Miss at Just 57K, Wave (5) Toward 103-104.5 Remains Intact

DXY - SUMMARY 06/07/2026 Regime: Dollar holds steady after a sharp NFP miss, Medium Bull. June NFP came in at just +57K versus a 110K forecast, weakest in four months, yet DXY still stands at 100.982 because wave (4) had already finished absorbing at 99.1-99.6 before the data landed, real yield remains positive at +0.27%, and the Fed stays hawkish post the Warsh FOMC. Bias: Medium Bull (trimmed from Medium-High Bull last week). New factor: June NFP missed sharply at +57K, May revised down from +172K to +129K, unemployment held at 4.2%. VIX low at 15.81, no defensive risk-off yet. Data corrections: CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); US2Y 4.12% (not 3.668%); Fed Hold with hawkish bias post-Warsh (not "40% hike odds"). D1 structure: wave (4) absorbed 99.113-99.618, price cleared to 100.982, retesting the reaction high at 101.5-102. Wave (5) targets: 101.808 then 103.957, zone 103-104.5. Invalidation below 97.695. Scenarios: wave (5) continues toward 103-104.5 (40%); weak ISM Services pulls price back to retest 99.1-99.6 (30%); range pending confirmation (15%); break below 97.695 invalidates the wave count (15%). Decisive event today: ISM Services PMI and a Waller speech. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Jul 6, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

USDJPY - Resistance at 161.94 Still Unbroken After Repeated Tests, MoF Intervention Risk Rising, Wave (a) Correction Targets 155.2

USDJPY - SUMMARY 03/07/2026 Regime: Wave (5) Exhaustion Confirmed, Medium Bear Near-Term. USDJPY 161.11 (0.00%), the 161.940 resistance has been tested repeatedly for over a week without breaking. Bias: Medium Bear near-term (not High given the wildcards). Three high-conviction bearish forces: (1) classic 161.940 resistance exhaustion, (2) actual US-JP carry spread only 1.71% (pipeline wrongly reports 3.015% using stale JP10Y 1.47%), (3) rising MoF intervention risk (Katayama remarks, confirmed "ambush tactics" per news). Additionally: NFP preview shows June expected to slow to 110K -- dovish risk if accurate. Further confirmation: VIX -2.65% risk-on today yet resistance still unbroken -- 161.940 is a genuine technical chokepoint. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.77% (not 1.47%); US-JP spread 1.71% (not 3.015%); US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); real yield +0.28% (not 2.085%); BoJ already hiked to 1.00% (not Hold). D1 structure: wave (a) correction expected along Fib 158.953 (0.382) → ~157 (0.5) → 155.207-154.539 (0.618, primary target). Scenarios: wave (a) confirmed toward 155.2 (45%); sideways awaiting NFP (25%); NFP strong, final breakout before correcting (15%); actual MoF intervention, sharp decline (15%). Do not chase long at resistance without confirmed breakout. Invalidation: daily close above 161.940. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jul 3, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

USOIL - Five Consecutive Weekly Draws and Price Keeps Falling: When the Market Ignores Inventory, the Supply Narrative Is Winning Absolutely

USOIL - SUMMARY 02/07/2026 Regime: High Bear Continues, Supply Narrative in Total Control. USOIL 67.85 (-0.34%), the 67 target from last week's analysis has been hit. Falling channel from the 117.50 war peak remains intact. Bias: High Bear. Core story: 5 consecutive weekly EIA draws totalling -33.3M barrels (1 July: -3.775M vs forecast -2.900M) -- the strongest destocking sequence this year -- and price still fell from 75 to 67.85. When a market ignores the most bullish data available, bulls have lost control. The strongest behavioural bearish signal that exists. Supply narrative: OPEC+ +411kbpd from June, Hormuz flows recovered (OCBC + UBS both cut forecasts), Iran-US talks progressing -- each round another leg lower. Data corrections: EIA -3.775M released (pipeline "awaiting" stale); CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); real yield +0.28%. D1 structure: 69.34-73.35 support broken. Resistance: 69.34 / 73.35 (channel invalidation). Targets: 63.57 → 62.77 → 57.60 (major support Q4 2025 base -- where OPEC+ fiscal pressure peaks, production-cut intervention likely). Extension: 52.88. Scenarios: downtrend continues to 63.57 (50%); extends to 57.60 (25%); oversold bounce 69-73 then resumes (15%); Iran talks collapse, breakout 73-85 (10%). Event risk: NFP 3 July, EIA 8 July (sixth draw?), OPEC+ communique, Iran talks wildcard. Stops for shorts: above 69.34. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jul 2, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

XAUUSD - Wave (4) Running After the 5,100 Peak Confirmed, 4,296 Broken and Price Seeking Its Floor at 3,797-3,881

XAUUSD - SUMMARY 29/06/2026 Regime: Wave (4) In Progress, Medium Bear. XAUUSD 4,023.995 (-1.57%), the 4,296-4,381 support zone broke this week. Following wave 3 completion at the ~5,100 peak (April 2026), gold is executing a wave (4) structural correction with four forces aligned bearish. Bias: Medium Bear, wave (4) in progress. Four bearish drivers: actual real yield +0.172% (pipeline 1.972% wrong -- uses stale CPI 2.4%; actual 4.2%), Fed Warsh hawkish hold (H2 2026 hike not excluded), DXY structurally bullish (wave (5) targeting 103-104, inverse relationship with gold active), risk-on SPX +0.68% VIX 18.7 (reduced safe-haven demand). XAGUSD -1.68% declining faster than gold confirms structural bearish trend. Data corrections: CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); real yield +0.172% (not 1.972%); JP10Y 2.63% (not 1.47%); ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%). D1 structure: 4,296-4,381 broken, flipped to resistance. Wave (4) target: 3,881 (Fib 0.382) then 3,797. RSI ~34 near oversold may generate technical bounce toward 4,100-4,200 without altering structure. Extended wave (4): 3,500-3,600. Invalidation: daily close above 4,296. Hard invalidation: below 2,997. Scenarios: wave (4) continues to 3,797-3,881 (55%); bounce to 4,100-4,200 then resumes (25%); NFP miss + geopolitical spike reclaims 4,296 (15%); extended to 3,500-3,600 (5%). Do not buy the dip before NFP 3 July. Wait for reversal signals at 3,797-3,881. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 29, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

DXY - Wave (4) Absorbing After Completing a 13-Month High, NFP on 3 July Is the Decisive Catalyst for Wave (5)

DXY - SUMMARY 29/06/2026 Regime: Wave (4) Absorbing, Neutral Near Term, Bullish Medium Term. DXY 101.019, pulled back from wave (3) high at 104.2 -- a 13-month high -- to 100.6 last week then bounced modestly to 101.0. Elliott five-wave structure intact. Declining volume in the pullback confirms correction, not reversal. Bias: Medium-High Bull medium term. Neutral within current wave (4). Macro foundation: US CPI actual 4.2% (pipeline 2.4% stale), Fed Warsh hawkish hold, rate differential +225bps vs EUR (ECB 2.00% neutral hold), +325bps vs JPY (BoJ 1.00%). US10Y 4.372%, yield curve steepening +27bps, real yield +0.172%. Data corrections: JP10Y 2.63% (not 1.47%); US-JP spread 1.742% (not 2.924%); DE10Y 2.85% (not 2.99%); ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%). D1 structure: wave (4) absorption zone 99.6 (Fib 0.382) to 99.1 (Fib 0.5). Resistance: 101.5 / 102.0 / 102.5. Support: 100.48 (Higher Low) / 99.6 / 99.1 / 98.0. Wave (5) target 103-104.5. Extended: 106. Invalidation: 97.695. Scenarios: test 99.6-99.1 then wave (5) 103-104.5 (60%); low already printed at 100.6, break of 102.0 = early wave (5) (30%); NFP miss, below 98 (10%). Event risk: Chicago PMI 30 June, ADP 1 July, NFP 3 July -- decisive catalyst. Above 220K = early wave (5) trigger. Do not chase before NFP. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 29, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

USDJPY - Wave (5) Exhaustion Confirmed as Price Failed to Break 161.94 for an Entire Week, Tokyo CPI Beat Gives the BoJ More Ammunition

USDJPY 161.651 | Wave (5) exhaustion confirmed, Tokyo CPI beats | 26 June 2026 Last week: "Wave (5) exhaustion at the intervention ceiling, expect correction to 155-157." One week later: price stood at 161.6, unable to break 161.94 despite DXY at a 13-month high. Exhaustion is no longer speculation. Then Tokyo CPI June released today. Core-core 1.9% y/y, beat 1.8% forecast, up from 1.6%. The BoJ has fresh ammunition to hike again. Yen-supportive. DXY pulled back from 101.5 to 100.6. VIX jumped to 20.20 (+7.1%). Risk-off intensifying, carry-unwind pressure. Pipeline showed wrong numbers. JP10Y: 1.47% (actual 2.600%). US-JP spread: 2.924% (actual 1.790%). BoJ: "Hold" (actual: hiked to 1.00%). D1 structure: wave (5) at the 161.94 ceiling, failed to break after one full week. Correction targets: 158.953 (0.382), 155.244 (0.5), 153.5 (0.618). Extension if breaks 161.94: 164. Invalidation: below 152. Three scenarios: → Correction (a)(b)(c) to 155-157. Probability: 40% → MOF intervention, sharp drop to 155 then 152. Probability: 25% → DXY bounces, breaks 161.94, extension to 164. Probability: 20% The tell: one week at the ceiling, it didn't break. Then the BoJ's data came in hot. Exhaustion confirmed. Conviction: Medium Bear near-term (shifted from Med Bull correction lean). --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 26, 2026

Intermarket Analysis

USDCAD - CAD Hits a 14-Month Low as Oil Breaks Below $70 and DXY Holds a 13-Month High, a Double Squeeze Drives Wave (3) Toward 1.4447

USDCAD 1.4232 | Double squeeze: 13-month DXY high + oil below $70 | 25 June 2026 CAD hits a 14-month low, pressured from both sides simultaneously. USD leg: 13-month high post-hawkish FOMC. CAD leg: oil broke below $70 and the pre-war 71.11 support. When both legs tilt the same way, this is the strongest bullish configuration. BoC Macklem today: not seeing spillovers from higher oil prices into CPI. Implicitly dovish, BoC in no hurry to hike. Canada benchmark yields slipping. CAD at a 14-month low as tech selloff drives safe-haven into USD. AUDUSD at 0.691, broad commodity FX weakness. CAD weakness is not idiosyncratic. D1 structure: wave (3) impulse running. Target 1.4447 then 1.4540. Support 1.4100 then 1.3993. Invalidation: below 1.3476. Three scenarios: → Wave (3) continues to 1.4447 then 1.4540. Probability: 45% → Sub-wave 4 correction to 1.40 then resumes. Probability: 25% → Oil bounces + dovish Fed, drops to 1.39. Probability: 15% The tell: both legs tilting simultaneously. DXY strongest in 13 months, CAD weakest in 14. Not a coincidence. A double squeeze. Conviction: High Bull (upgraded from Med-High). --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 25, 2026