Tag: EUR/USD

EURUSD - The 1.140 Zone Is the Decision Point: Rejection Confirms Wave (c) to 1.119, Breakout Challenges the Entire Bearish Structure

EURUSD - SUMMARY 01/07/2026 Regime: Wave (c) Running, High Bear, Awaiting Confirmation. EURUSD 1.1403 (-0.16%), testing the "Wait for Price Rejection or Breakout" decision zone at 1.138-1.155 on D1. Bias: High Bear -- highest conviction in the 9-instrument pipeline this week. Four high-conviction bearish forces: DE-US spread -1.54% (DE10Y 2.92% vs US10Y 4.46%, carry entirely against EUR), Fed Warsh hawkish + Hammack today "may need higher rates," wave (c) RSI downtrend D1, ECB neutral hold 2.00% (no further dovish room). Data corrections: US CPI 4.2% (not 2.4%); real yield +0.26% (not 2.018%); US2Y 4.17% (not 3.732%); ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%); DE10Y 2.92% (not 2.99%); DE-US spread -1.54% (not -1.428%). D1 structure: wave 5 peak ~1.195 → wave (a) ~1.137 → wave (b) ~1.184 → wave (c) running. Sub-wave 5/(c) inside "Battle Zone" 1.138-1.155. Target: 1.119-1.120. Scenarios: rejection confirmed, wave (c) to 1.119-1.120 (60%); sideways 1.135-1.155 ahead of NFP (20%); NFP miss, bounce 1.157-1.165 (15%); breakout above 1.165 (5%). Trigger: daily close below 1.138 = bearish confirmed. Invalidation: daily close above 1.157. NFP 3 July is the dominant catalyst. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jul 1, 2026

EURGBP - Negative 1.84% Carry Weighs as Wave (c) Targets 0.844, but UK Political Instability Is Testing the Entire Thesis

EURGBP - SUMMARY 30/06/2026 Regime: Wave (c) Running Within Downtrend Channel, Medium Bear. EURGBP 0.8622 (+0.08%), within a downtrend channel after wave (b) completed at the ~0.876 peak (coinciding with Lagarde's hawkish Sintra remarks). Wave (c) projects toward 0.844-0.846. Bias: Medium Bear medium term (not High) given UK political risk is a wildcard. Primary driver: DE-GB 10Y carry spread of -1.84% (GB10Y 4.74% vs DE10Y 2.90%) -- one of the clearest differentials in G7, entirely tilted toward GBP. ECB has reached neutral hold at 2.00% (pipeline wrongly reports "cutting 2.50%") -- the most important correction this week, removing a dovish EUR catalyst. But unresolved UK political instability post-Starmer resignation 22 June is an asymmetric risk that could reverse the thesis. Data corrections: ECB neutral 2.00% (not cutting 2.50%); UK10Y 4.74% (not 4.50%); DE10Y 2.90% (not 2.99%). D1 structure: downtrend channel from (b) peak ~0.876. Channel resistance: 0.868-0.870. Support: 0.8611. Wave (c) target: 0.844-0.846. Scenarios: wave (c) continues to 0.844-0.846 (45%); bounce within channel 0.860-0.870 (30%); UK political escalation, channel breaks higher (20%); ECB more hawkish, accelerates (5%). Do not blindly chase shorts on carry alone. Closely monitor UK political news before committing to large positions. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 30, 2026

EURUSD - Wave (c) Confirmed After Breaking 1.141, a 13-Month DXY High and PMI Beat Push Euro Toward the 1.119 Projection

EURUSD 1.1370 | Wave (c) confirmed after breaking 1.141 | 24 June 2026 Last week's analysis set 1.141 as the bearish confirmation level. It broke. Wave (c) is now the base case, no longer a scenario. Three forces have converged since last week. DXY climbed to 101.476, a 13-month high. US PMI Manufacturing 55.7 beat the 54.7 forecast -- the economy is strong, the hike case is intact. Risk-off intensified: VIX 19.40, NAS -3.1% as tech slumped on rate bets. The euro leg has no catalyst. ECB 2.00% neutral. Vujcic: "haven't discussed the neutral rate." DE10Y fell to 2.920%, widening the DE-US spread to -1.570%. The pipeline showed wrong numbers. CPI US: 2.4% (actual 4.2%). DE10Y: 2.99% (actual 2.920%). ECB: 2.50% (actual 2.00%). Real yield: 0.290%, not 2%. D1 structure: wave (c) running with clear sub-waves. Sub-1 ~1.157, sub-2 bounce, sub-3 running (~1.137). Expect sub-4 bounce then sub-5 target 1.119. Deeper: 1.113 then 1.079-1.073. Three scenarios: → Sub-5 to 1.119. Probability: 45% → Strong data + risk-off accelerates through 1.119 to 1.079. Probability: 25% → Surprise weak data, sub-4 bounces to 1.145-1.150, resumes. Probability: 20% Invalidation: daily close above 1.192. Warning: reclaim 1.141. Conviction: High Bear (upgraded from Med-High). Every channel bearish, no divergence. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 24, 2026

EURGBP - The PM Resigned and the Pair Didn't Flinch, a 1.86% Carry Crushes Political Risk at the 0.86110 Support

EURGBP 0.8622 | 1.86% carry crushes political risk | 23 June 2026 The UK Prime Minister just resigned. The pound should be weaker. EURGBP should be bouncing. But the pair barely moved, still pinned at the 0.86110 support. This is not an anomaly. This is the strongest bear signal of the week. Carry decides. UK10Y 4.770% above DE10Y 2.910% by 1.860 percentage points. The spread is nearly identical to last week (1.862%). Starmer's exit did not narrow carry, and when a pair doesn't react to a PM-level shock, the structural force is overwhelming. EUR is not strong enough to push it higher either. EURUSD 1.1392 falling. ECB neutral at 2.00%. Lane/Lagarde rhetoric mixed. The pipeline showed wrong numbers. UK10Y: 4.50% (actual 4.770%). DE10Y: 2.99% (actual 2.910%). ECB: 2.50% (actual 2.00%). D1 structure: descending channel intact from the 0.888 top. Wave (c) testing the 0.86110 support. A break opens 0.84418 then 0.84117. Invalidation: 0.87415. Three scenarios: → Break 0.86110, wave (c) to 0.84418 then 0.84117. Probability: 40% → Hold 0.86110, carry pins, range 0.860-0.865. Probability: 25% → Political crisis escalates, UK yields drop, delayed bounce to 0.87415. Probability: 20% The tell: EURGBP didn't react to a PM resignation. The 1.86% carry controls this pair. As long as it holds, the downside has the higher probability. Conviction: Medium-High Bear, increased versus last week. --- Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 23, 2026

EURUSD - Wave (c) Correction Lower After the 1.21 Top, the DE-US Spread at -1.51% Reinforces the USD Carry Advantage Into the FOMC

EURUSD 1.1595 | Wave (c) lower meets the Warsh dot plot tonight | 17 June 2026 The structure and the yield spread both point down. One event tonight decides the pace. The Elliott Wave count on the D1 is clean: EURUSD completed a five-wave impulse to the wave (5) top near 1.21 (Feb), then an ABC correction: (a) ~1.142, (b) ~1.182, and wave (c) now running lower. Price at 1.1595 sits inside wave (c). The yield foundation reinforces the decline. The DE-US spread is -1.510% -- US yields 1.51 points above German, a strong USD carry advantage. The ECB at 2.00% sits below the Fed. The pipeline is showing you the wrong numbers. Pipeline CPI US: 2.4% (stale). Actual: 4.2%, real yield 0.238%. Pipeline ECB: 2.50% cutting. Actual: 2.00% neutral hold. Chart header price 1.16416 is an artifact -- actual ~1.1595. D1 structure: key support 1.14100 (wave a low). Near wave (c) target: 1.145 → 1.141. A break opens the deeper projection 1.10-1.105. Resistance: descending trendline 1.165-1.168, then the wave (b) top ~1.182. Pre-FOMC EUR scenarios: → Hawkish, hike dot: break below 1.145 toward 1.141 then 1.10-1.105. Probability: 40% → Dovish, no hike dot: bounce to the trendline 1.165-1.168. Probability: 25% → Neutral, balanced dots: drift in wave (c) 1.155-1.165. Probability: 25% Wave-count invalidation: daily close above ~1.182. The tell: tonight's dot plot. A hike dot accelerates wave (c) toward 1.141; a dovish hold bounces EURUSD to the trendline. Do not chase ahead of the dot plot. Conviction: Medium-High Bear. Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 17, 2026

EURGBP - GBP Carry Advantage Drives the Descending Channel, ECB Neutral-Hawkish Hold the Lone EUR Counterweight

EURGBP 0.8646 | GBP carry advantage drives the channel | 16 June 2026 Many read the EURGBP decline as euro weakness. The reverse is true. This is a sterling-strength story, not a euro collapse. The ECB completed its eighth cut to 2.00% and shifted to a neutral, slightly hawkish-leaning hold. The market no longer prices deep cuts -- that is neutral-to-mildly bullish for the euro. The euro leg is not weak. The real driver is yield. UK10Y at 4.784% sits above DE10Y at 2.922% by 1.862 percentage points. That wide gap, plus the BoE holding above the ECB, is a carry advantage tilted to sterling. The newsfeed confirms: "Sterling steady... focus turns to UK data and BoE." The pipeline is showing you the wrong numbers. Pipeline UK10Y: 4.50% (stale). Actual: 4.784%. Pipeline ECB: 2.50%, still cutting. Actual: 2.00%, neutral hold. D1 structure: a descending channel from the 0.888 high (Nov 2025). Now 0.8646, below the 0.87415 resistance, approaching the 0.86110 support. Target: 0.84418 → 0.84117. Three scenarios: → Break below 0.86110: activates the 0.84418 target. Probability: 40% → Bounce to test 0.869 then resume lower. Probability: 25% → Surprise dovish BoE: EURGBP bounces to 0.87415. Probability: 20% Invalidation: daily close above 0.87415. The tell: the upcoming BoE meeting. A higher-for-longer BoE keeps sterling's 1.86% yield edge intact and the channel pointing down. Conviction: Medium-High Bear. Intermarket Edge | Institutional Macro & Intermarket Analysis For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Jun 16, 2026

EURGBP — Iran Strikes US Bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, Ceasefire Dead, and Wave (c) Accelerating Toward 0.8441

EURGBP 0.8628 | ECB paused, BoE split | 10 June 2026 Three developments since June 3. All consistent with the wave (c) bear thesis continuing. First: the ECB completed its cutting cycle. The June 5 cut to 2.25% confirmed and Lagarde signaled a pause at the neutral rate. The euro is no longer under systematic downward pressure from ongoing cuts. Paradoxically, arriving at neutral is mildly euro-supportive — but it does not change the 150bp ECB-BoE rate differential that is the structural anchor for this pair. Second: BoE Taylor confirmed the dovish hold. "Holding rates is the right place to be right now." MPC is split: Greene hawkish, Taylor dovish. Net reading: firmly on hold at 3.75%, with a live hawkish tail that could accelerate EURGBP lower on any UK CPI upside surprise. Third: oil declining. WTI $88.18, Brent $91.41 — down sharply from last week's $95-98 Iran-Israel escalation highs. Less oil means less UK energy inflation urgency, less Greene BoE hike case. Mildly slows the pace of wave (c) but does not reverse it. The critical distinction from other pairs: EURGBP momentum is confirming the wave (c) decline — no negative divergence, no exhaustion signal. EURJPY and USDJPY diverged at their wave (b) tops. EURGBP did not. This is a clean trend with room to run. Wave (c) targets: 0.84418 → 0.84117. Near-term bear confirmation: daily close below 0.8611. Invalidation: daily close above 0.8741. Conviction: Medium-High Bear.

Jun 10, 2026

EURUSD — Iran and Israel Halt Attacks, Dollar Retreats from Two-Month High, and Wave (c) Is Still in Progress

EURUSD 1.1578 | Iran-Israel halt | 09 June 2026 Iran and Israel announced a halt to attacks following a Trump appeal. Dollar retreated from its two-month high. EURUSD bounced 43 pips from 1.1535 to 1.1578. Brent fell from $98 to $92.86. VIX declined from 21.57 to 18.06. The question is whether this is a structural reversal or a tactical relief rally. The answer is in what has — and has not — changed. What has changed: the safe-haven dollar premium from Iran-Israel escalation is partially unwinding. Germany's Industrial Production grew +0.4% MoM in April — the first positive reading since the Iran war began. What has NOT changed: NFP 172K, Fed hike probability at 74.8%, corrected real yield at 0.740% and rising toward 1%, the ECB-Fed differential of 1.25-1.50 percentage points in the dollar's favor, and the wave (c) corrective structure targeting 1.1200. The clearest structural tell: USDJPY at 160.189 is not declining despite the broad dollar retreat. In a pure geopolitical unwind, the yen would be surging. The fact that it is holding above 160 confirms the structural rate differential dollar bid is intact — today's EURUSD bounce is tactical, not structural. SocGen Juckes: "The big event this week is the US CPI data. A big upside surprise and the dollar gets a bid. A benign print and that is a different story." Invalidation: daily close above 1.1920. Wave (c) targets: 1.1200 → 1.0950. Do not add directional exposure before CPI Wednesday June 11. Conviction: Medium, Neutral-to-Mild Bear.

Jun 9, 2026

EURUSD — NFP Beats, ECB Cuts to 2.25%, and the 1.1600 Floor Is Holding a Structural Conversation

Jun 5, 2026