Tag: EUR/USD

Forex & Currency

Euro Wobbles as Markets Cling to Hopes for Middle East Peace Deal - Two Competing Scenarios Are Fighting Directly on the Chart

**EURUSD 1.1633 is not a simple dollar-weakness trade. It is a market suspended at the exact crossroads between two Elliott Wave scenarios pointing in opposite directions.** Here is the paradox no one is talking about: The Iran deal is simultaneously bullish AND bearish for EUR depending on your timeframe. - Short-term: deal progress weakens dollar, EURUSD rises - Medium-term: deal signed = Hormuz reopens = de-dollarization urgency fades = structural EUR bid partially unwinds = EURUSD corrects toward 1.13-1.14 The same catalyst. Two opposite outcomes. Different clocks. The chart shows this tension clearly. From the 2022 low at 1.0353, EURUSD completed a 5-wave impulse to 1.2050+, then entered ABC correction. Wave (c) is currently developing with two live scenarios: Bear: extends to 1.1400 then 1.0795 (1.618 extension) Bull: correction done, next impulse toward 1.19-1.21 Rate differential of -1.568% (DE10Y vs US10Y) favors USD structurally. ECB cutting at 2.50% while Fed holds. Historical precedent: rate differential wins over 6-12 months. The only force holding EUR above 1.16 despite all of this: central bank de-dollarization reserve reallocation. Price-insensitive. Does not reverse in weeks. Wednesday 27 May is the decision day. Two catalysts land simultaneously: Logan (Fed) speaks + ECB Financial Stability Review drops. Hawkish Logan + dovish FSR = double whammy for EUR. **The only level that matters: 1.1700** Break above = bull confirmed, target 1.19-1.20 Fail below 1.15 = bear activated, target 1.0795 No conviction trade exists between these two levels. Waiting for Wednesday. #EURUSD #Euro #DXY #MacroAnalysis #ElliottWave #IranDeal #Dedollarization #ECB #FedWatch #IntermarketAnalysis

May 26, 2026

Macro Regime SLUG

EURUSD | May 19, 2026 The Euro at 1.1621 - Holding Above 1.14 While the World Reprices the Dollar

**EURUSD | May 19, 2026** EURUSD is trading at 1.1621 tonight. By every classical measure, it should not be here. The ECB is in a cutting cycle with the deposit rate at 2.50%. Eurozone CPI is at 2.2%. The DE-US 10Y yield spread is -163 basis points - one of the widest structural disadvantages for EUR in over a decade. Every rate differential model says EURUSD should be closer to 1.08-1.10. The fact that it is trading 600 pips above that range is the most important macro signal in FX right now. Something structural has changed. Global central banks and sovereign wealth funds - particularly from the Middle East, Asia, and emerging markets - have been systematically reducing USD exposure since the SWIFT exclusion of Russia in 2022. The Iran war shock of February 2026 accelerated that process. EUR is the deepest and most liquid alternative to USD in global reserve portfolios, and it is absorbing a structural bid that has nothing to do with ECB versus Fed policy. This is the regime that explains the anomaly. De-dollarization flows are non-price-sensitive and do not stop for weekly data releases. They provide a persistent floor under EUR demand that the standard interest rate model cannot see. Two additional forces are reinforcing this bid: Warsh uncertainty - the new Fed Chair has zero established reaction function, keeping institutional dollar positioning tentative - and Brent crude above $110, which signals the Hormuz premium is still active and the geopolitical urgency driving reserve reallocation has not eased. The near-term structure is consolidation between 1.14 and 1.19. No collapse without a hawkish Warsh shock or genuine Hormuz resolution. No breakout above 1.19 without US data deterioration or further geopolitical escalation. Watch Brent and EURGBP daily - they tell you whether the regime is intact before EURUSD price does.

May 19, 2026