Tag: Fed

Macro Regime SLUG

USDJPY: Yen Holds Steady Amid Fresh Verbal Warning - USDJPY Is Sitting at the Peak of a Completed Wave Structure

USDJPY 159.329 ngày 29/05/2026 đang ở đỉnh của một wave structure đã hoàn chỉnh, với ba lực bearish align đồng thời - và 160.00 là line phân định mọi thứ. Headline sáng nay: "Yen holds steady amid fresh verbal warning." BoJ đã escalate language - đây là bước đầu trong ladder: verbal warning, strong verbal warning, actual intervention. Với USDJPY ở 159.329 và approaching 160, thị trường đang ở giữa bước 1 và 2. Lịch sử BoJ confirm: họ đã intervene tại 160-162 trước đây. "Fresh verbal warning" hôm nay là signal họ sẽ làm lại. Brent drop thêm $3.18 chỉ trong một đêm, từ $94.87 xuống $91.69. Total drop từ đỉnh $111.27 ngày 18/05 là $19.58 trong 11 ngày. Iran deal decompression đang accelerate, không slow down. Điều này hit USDJPY qua double channel: Japan là net energy importer lớn nhất thế giới nên oil rẻ hơn là structural JPY bid, đồng thời oil drop compress US inflation expectations, giảm Fed hike odds, weaken USD. Cả hai vector cùng bearish USDJPY. Chart D1 confirm bằng Elliott Wave structure rõ ràng: completed 5-wave impulse từ đáy 130 lên đỉnh 161-163, ABC correction đang trong wave (c) với measured targets 152.612 (1.0 extension) và 147.782 (1.618 extension). PCE 3.8% hôm qua là short-term USD support nhưng không reverse structural bear thesis - nó chỉ confirm oil shock đang transmit vào inflation, và khi oil tiếp tục drop, PCE sẽ compress và Fed pivot path sẽ reopen. Conviction Medium-High Bear. Tell duy nhất: 160.00. Approach đó thì BoJ intervenes và wave (c) về 152.612 accelerates. Brent dưới $88 trong 24-48h là tell thứ hai.

May 29, 2026

Intermarket Analysis SLUG

GBPUSD: Dollar Steadies as Hopes for Iran Peace Deal Waver - Sterling Holding Ground But the RSI Is Telling a Different Story

GBPUSD 1.3454 today. Price is attempting recovery. But the RSI is not following. That divergence is the most important signal on this chart - and it is the only instrument in this week's series where RSI, not macro or price level, is the primary signal. Here is what the chart is showing: Two competing Elliott Wave counts are fighting for control. Orange count: completed 5-wave impulse from 2024 lows, correction incoming toward 1.30-1.31. Blue count: ABC correction with wave (c) targeting 1.3008-1.3077. Both point the same direction. RSI bearish divergence - price making higher lows, RSI making lower highs - is the tiebreaker. It typically appears at the end of wave (b) or terminal wave (5). Both are pre-correction setups. What makes GBPUSD unique in this week's series: Rate differential is near-zero. UK10Y 4.50% vs US10Y 4.493%, spread +0.007%. No structural carry advantage from either side. Unlike EURUSD (-1.568% headwind for EUR) or EURGBP (+1.51% favoring GBP), GBPUSD will be driven entirely by macro narrative. Not carry. Not rate differential. Just: Iran deal or no deal, and what the Fed says next. The macro picture today: oil market and FX market are diverging. Brent down $16.25 from the 18 May peak - oil still pricing the deal. But DXY steadied at 99.07 and the headline is "dollar steadies as deal hopes waver." Two markets, two different reads on the same event. Today is the most event-dense day of the week. Logan speaks. Cook speaks. ADP drops. EIA releases. Four catalysts simultaneously. Base case (45%): Logan hawkish, ADP strong, DXY bounces to 100+, GBPUSD retraces to 1.33-1.34. RSI divergence confirms. The only tell that matters: watch RSI after Logan speaks. If RSI turns up and GBPUSD holds 1.3400 - divergence resolving bullish. If RSI keeps declining while price attempts 1.35-1.36 - correction to 1.3077 is next. Conviction: Medium. Bias: Mildly bearish near-term. #GBPUSD #Sterling #DXY #IranDeal #ElliottWave #RSIDivergence #MacroAnalysis #FedWatch #BoE

May 27, 2026

Forex & Currency

Euro Wobbles as Markets Cling to Hopes for Middle East Peace Deal - Two Competing Scenarios Are Fighting Directly on the Chart

**EURUSD 1.1633 is not a simple dollar-weakness trade. It is a market suspended at the exact crossroads between two Elliott Wave scenarios pointing in opposite directions.** Here is the paradox no one is talking about: The Iran deal is simultaneously bullish AND bearish for EUR depending on your timeframe. - Short-term: deal progress weakens dollar, EURUSD rises - Medium-term: deal signed = Hormuz reopens = de-dollarization urgency fades = structural EUR bid partially unwinds = EURUSD corrects toward 1.13-1.14 The same catalyst. Two opposite outcomes. Different clocks. The chart shows this tension clearly. From the 2022 low at 1.0353, EURUSD completed a 5-wave impulse to 1.2050+, then entered ABC correction. Wave (c) is currently developing with two live scenarios: Bear: extends to 1.1400 then 1.0795 (1.618 extension) Bull: correction done, next impulse toward 1.19-1.21 Rate differential of -1.568% (DE10Y vs US10Y) favors USD structurally. ECB cutting at 2.50% while Fed holds. Historical precedent: rate differential wins over 6-12 months. The only force holding EUR above 1.16 despite all of this: central bank de-dollarization reserve reallocation. Price-insensitive. Does not reverse in weeks. Wednesday 27 May is the decision day. Two catalysts land simultaneously: Logan (Fed) speaks + ECB Financial Stability Review drops. Hawkish Logan + dovish FSR = double whammy for EUR. **The only level that matters: 1.1700** Break above = bull confirmed, target 1.19-1.20 Fail below 1.15 = bear activated, target 1.0795 No conviction trade exists between these two levels. Waiting for Wednesday. #EURUSD #Euro #DXY #MacroAnalysis #ElliottWave #IranDeal #Dedollarization #ECB #FedWatch #IntermarketAnalysis

May 26, 2026

Geopolitical Watch SLUG

DXY | 25/05/2026 Dollar Drifts Lower on Hormuz Deal Optimism - But the Technical Structure Tells a More Complex Story

The dollar is not in a simple downtrend. It is in a corrective structure — and Iran deal optimism is the force testing its floor. DXY at 98.71 today. Down 0.34%. Headlines say "dollar drifts lower on Hormuz deal optimism." That is true but incomplete. Here is the full picture: Iran deal progress pulls Brent lower ($111 to $103 in 7 days) Lower oil compresses inflation expectations Compressed inflation reduces Fed hike odds (currently ~55% before Q4) Lower hike odds weaken the dollar mechanically But rate differential (Fed hold vs ECB cutting at 2.50%) remains a structural floor The chart tells you exactly where this ends up. D1 DXY shows a clear ABC corrective wave structure after the war spike from 97.6 to 102.5. Wave (c) Fibonacci 0.618 target: 96.65. That is the measured destination if Iran deal materializes and Logan on Wednesday does not push back. The "Higher Low" at 97.69 is the invalidation floor. Red resistance at 100.03-100.40 has been rejected twice. EURUSD at 1.1646 — with 57.6% weight in the DXY basket — is the ceiling that makes any sustained DXY recovery structurally difficult. The tell is EURUSD 1.17. If EUR breaks that level, de-dollarization is accelerating and 96.65 is in play. If EURUSD rejects at 1.17 after Logan Wednesday, expect a corrective bounce back toward 100. Two events decide DXY's direction this week. Iran deal signing (no schedule, 30% probability in 24-48h). Logan speech Wednesday — hawkish confirmation of Waller's stance would suspend the entire bear thesis near-term regardless of Iran. Conviction: Medium-Bear. Conditional on Logan neutral and deal progress. 98.71 is the price of a market waiting for Wednesday.

May 25, 2026

Macro Regime SLUG

EURUSD | May 19, 2026 The Euro at 1.1621 - Holding Above 1.14 While the World Reprices the Dollar

**EURUSD | May 19, 2026** EURUSD is trading at 1.1621 tonight. By every classical measure, it should not be here. The ECB is in a cutting cycle with the deposit rate at 2.50%. Eurozone CPI is at 2.2%. The DE-US 10Y yield spread is -163 basis points - one of the widest structural disadvantages for EUR in over a decade. Every rate differential model says EURUSD should be closer to 1.08-1.10. The fact that it is trading 600 pips above that range is the most important macro signal in FX right now. Something structural has changed. Global central banks and sovereign wealth funds - particularly from the Middle East, Asia, and emerging markets - have been systematically reducing USD exposure since the SWIFT exclusion of Russia in 2022. The Iran war shock of February 2026 accelerated that process. EUR is the deepest and most liquid alternative to USD in global reserve portfolios, and it is absorbing a structural bid that has nothing to do with ECB versus Fed policy. This is the regime that explains the anomaly. De-dollarization flows are non-price-sensitive and do not stop for weekly data releases. They provide a persistent floor under EUR demand that the standard interest rate model cannot see. Two additional forces are reinforcing this bid: Warsh uncertainty - the new Fed Chair has zero established reaction function, keeping institutional dollar positioning tentative - and Brent crude above $110, which signals the Hormuz premium is still active and the geopolitical urgency driving reserve reallocation has not eased. The near-term structure is consolidation between 1.14 and 1.19. No collapse without a hawkish Warsh shock or genuine Hormuz resolution. No breakout above 1.19 without US data deterioration or further geopolitical escalation. Watch Brent and EURGBP daily - they tell you whether the regime is intact before EURUSD price does.

May 19, 2026

Weekly Outlook SLUG

The Dollar at 98.78 - Warsh Era Begins, Dollar Searches for Direction

**DXY | Weekly Outlook - May 19, 2026** DXY is at 98.78. By every classical input it should be higher. That gap between where the dollar is and where the macro narrative says it should be is the most important question in FX this week. The United States has a new Fed Chair with a hawkish reputation. April CPI printed at 3.8%. CME FedWatch is pricing 40% probability of a rate hike by April 2027. In any previous tightening cycle, this configuration produces a stronger dollar. Yet DXY has been unable to reclaim 100 for nearly three months - since the Iran war began in late February and restructured the way institutional allocators think about reserve assets. What is holding DXY below 100 is not weakness in the US economy. It is the mechanical weight of EURUSD at 1.1651 - which alone accounts for 57.6% of the index - combined with a de-dollarization structural bid from EM central banks and sovereign wealth funds that does not respond to weekly rate moves. Global yields are also rising in parallel across DE10Y, JP10Y, and UK10Y, which limits the relative yield advantage that would normally drive institutional dollar buying. The regime is Stagflationary Dollar Ambiguity. Two forces are fighting simultaneously and neither has won: the inflation case for dollar strength and the geopolitical case for reserve asset diversification away from USD. This week, the resolution comes from one event: FOMC Member Waller speaks Tuesday May 19. Three scenarios - hawkish confirmation sends DXY toward 99.62 then 100.48, ambiguity keeps the range, dovish surprise breaks 97.695 support. Conviction is Medium-Low. This is not a week for directional dollar positioning ahead of Tuesday.

May 18, 2026